Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability provided through current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
