The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Propels Aston Villa's Unlikely Title Charge

A mere 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager admonished him for not reading a through-ball. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his displays were a symptom or a cause of the team's more general malaise.

This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst was much more joyous. As the in-form star drilled in his second to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss tore off his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club continued to ten wins in a row , despite not winning their initial half-dozen games, now sit a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Genuine Hopefuls?

That’s a rather hard proposition to address. History, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, even as the positive results have piled up.

According to the data, on just two occasions have Villa had an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a team which has strung together ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – but currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.

The Reliant Strategy

The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on their star man to bail them out with some precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it happened in London, and again against Manchester United.

Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

How Long Can This Continue?

Common sense dictates no. Against United, Manchester United managed more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.

A reversion to average could be the biggest rival they must confront in the near future. The forward, surely, cannot maintain drilling the football into the net's top corner week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs might still find their top level.

• The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
• The winger could transform into the player he was during his peak.
• The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.

Enjoying the Ride

Yet, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential player for the national team.

This remarkable period must be cherished exactly since it appears so improbable. As Rogers faced the home supporters after the match conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.