Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
