Beijing Dispatches Maritime Patrol Vessels to Diaoyu Islands Amid Dispute with Japan

Beijing has deployed its coast guard into the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and military drones past remote Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up strains following the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its vessels carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the latest activity occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, told parliament that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts the island as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it describes as “unification”. It has left open the use of force. The island's administration and people overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the status quo without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the US and other allies including Tokyo, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was probably the coast guard, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are not rare, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said China had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. The island reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since the Japanese official made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first occasion since 2023, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other powers, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

However, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.